Today’s digest carries three reports of a NATO jet shooting down a drone over southern Lithuania. Al Jazeera, BBC World, and France 24 agree on the actor (NATO), the location (Lithuanian airspace), and the timing (early Tuesday). They also agree on the hedge: the drone was 'probably' or 'suspected' to be Russian.
This is a keyed incident—date, place, and outcome are locked—but the attribution chain is not. The outlets may be relaying the same NATO statement through three mastheads, not three independent assessments. If so, 'probably Russian' repeated three times is one claim, not three. The divergence procedure cannot execute on a single evidentiary chain, no matter how many outlets carry it.